NKH: In your opinion, what impacts will be experienced by downstream countries in general and the Mekong delta in particular when the Yunnan dams operate?  NTV: We need to look at the Mekong delta in the context of the whole Mekong River basin.  No single downstream country is capable of independently defending the portion of the river that flows through its territory, because "they all live in the lower reaches".  Given that half the length of the upper reaches of the river runs through Yunnan, and given the advanced development of science and technology today, China has the upper hand in controlling the entire flow of the river -- including diversion of its path when necessary to provide water to the drought areas in the southwest provinces of China.  When the series of eight dams in Yunnan are completed, Beijing will have in hand the power to regulate 53% of the annual volume of the Mekong River, at the same time retaining in reservoirs 70% of its silt deposits.  Under the impact of electrification leading to industrialization, marked by factories and plants mushrooming along its banks, the Mekong River has turned into a sewer carrying off downstream toxic industrial waste.  Polluted river water will kill all fish species.  Disruption of the natural flow cycle and depletion of sediment will have extensive and long-term negative impacts on agriculture, especially in the Mekong delta of Vietnam because it is situated at the lower end of the Mekong River.  In addition, since the Mekong delta is at an altitude lower than sea level, when the river dries up, notably during the 6-month dry season, the area suffers not only from drought but also from intrusion of saline water from the South China Sea.  There have appeared "signals from the sea" represented by the presence of saltwater fish up into the Plain of Reeds.  From being a rice basket that feeds the whole country, the Mekong delta faces the danger of becoming a mangrove forest with all types of maritime trees and shrubs.  NKH: What main objective do you think China had when she unilaterally decided to exploit and control the flow of the Mekong River?  NTV: Quite obvious to all are the profits from hydroelectricity and navigation provided by the dams.  A concrete example is that the 1,500 megawatts alone, generated by the Manwan Dam, the first dam built on the mainstream of the Mekong River, is enough to light up the entire provincial capital, Kunming, and to create a springboard for economic development of the whole of Yunnan province.  Larger than Vietnam, Yunnan had long been an underdeveloped area. From a long-term perspective, the cascade of dams in Yunnan can be seen as a horrendous strategic environmental weapon wielding the power to let live or to kill off the downstream countries.  Only a truly naïve person would not perceive that reality.  While oil was the cause of wars in the previous century, in the 21st century we will see wars over water.  NKH: In facing of that danger, what can Vietnamese people and the leadership inside the country do to stop such an evil design on the part of China?  NTV: Before discussing what can be done, Vietnamese in the country must be fully informed of everything occurring on the Mekong River.  But this is not yet possible when all means of mass communication are in the hands of the government.  This situation is shared by all three Indochinese countries.  In Laos, people could only express surprise but did not know why the river drained even before the arrival of the dry season.  In Cambodia, people were preoccupied with protecting the Tonle Sap Lake Biosphere Reserve and the Bird Sanctuary while absolutely unaware of the threat posed by the Yunnan dams, more than 2,000 km away.  In Vietnam, Le Quang Minh, former Vice President of the University of Can Tho and representative in the National Assembly, had to lament: "It's very difficult to gather information from China, which really worries us." In my opinion, we can't passively sit and wait for China to inform us of impending calamities that they may cause to happen.  The Vietnamese leadership needs to have a far-sighted perspective, needs to take the initiative in keeping track of and gathering information on whatever happens to the Mekong River.  For example, it is necessary to establish a Faculty of Mekong River Studies at the University of Can Tho, which would draw the gray matter from experts and from the board of advisors of the Mekong River Commission.  It would be a center for studies and research on the river, designed not only for Vietnam but also for all seven countries of the Lower Mekong Basin.  Its aim would be to produce skilled experts ready to deal with problems of environmental destruction and issues of exploitation and development in the whole basin.  Those Vietnamese embassies and consulates situated at places through which the river flows must immediately recruit environmental attachés, or more practically an attaché having particular charge of being responsible for Mekong River affairs.  They must be highly skilled and persevere in watching for any change incurred by each part of the river so that they can on a timely basis inform and alert people in the area.  Only in this fashion can the involved countries voice their protest against the Chinese authorities. As of now, whatever protest made by the downstream countries has no effect in preventing China from exploiting half the length of the river that runs through its territory; in other words, from building the rest of the intended Yunnan dams.  Having said that, I don't mean to imply that we have no alternative but to leave Beijing alone to freely do that it wants.  Focusing on sustainable development, we will be capable of damage control, because in this century of globalization there exist still an international community and more than 80 million Vietnamese living both inside the country and abroad, whose voice China must listen to.  NKH: In your view, what can the Vietnamese Diaspora -- I'm talking about those young and old who are deeply concerned with this issue --contribute to resolving the problem?  Do you think this is a reversible situation? NTV: As for the Vietnamese Diaspora, even given rich sources of information and excellent means of communication where they now live, they have not come to adequately grasp the danger posed by the giant Yunnan dams.  For example, during a discussion with me a very knowledgeable colleague of mine declared that China is doing something correct and useful, which is to store floodwaters in reservoirs at the Yunnan dams during the rainy season then discharge water during the dry season, thus preventing floods and alleviating drought for the downstream countries.  That argument is precisely a dose of very effective placebo that Beijing has been loudly proclaiming.  Hearing about my book, an altruistic clergyman who has committed himself to providing relief to victims of floods in the Mekong delta questioned why I talk about the river running dry while the area was being completely inundated.  Then a journalist friend believes that the threat is still far away, and perhaps it will only be a difficult problem for future generations to deal with. It is clear that a series of ecological phenomena never occur in an "immediately perceivable" and "simple" manner.  We have no way of reversing time, taking the Mekong River back to its virginal wild state.  That strong river was, is, and will be exploited to the utmost by various countries out of the need for development.  But the question is, how can one exploit the river without damaging and without exhausting its natural resources, abundant but by no means limitless?  And developmental progress of each country should not be paid for with sacrifices by other countries in the basin.  When China declined to join in the Mekong River Commission with a view to remaining free in building all the planned Yunnan dams, it became clear the downstream countries would pay a very high price. NEXT PAGE | PREVIOUS PAGE | HOME